JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Jacksonville saw one of the sharpest home-price drops in the nation, with the region’s median home price falling more than $16,000 year over year in October, the steepest decline among the country’s 40 largest metro areas, according to new data from Homes.com.
The report ranks Jacksonville 40 out of 40 for annual price change, underscoring how quickly the market has cooled after several years of rapid appreciation.
Local real-estate agents in the Jacksonville area say conditions align with those broader trends. Sellers are encountering more inventory, longer time on market and growing price pressure, particularly in mid- and lower-price segments. Neighborhoods that saw fast appreciation over the last few years are seeing fewer bidding wars, and more homeowners are cutting or rethinking asking prices.
ADDRESSING A4DABILITY COVERAGE
“In 2022, we had record low inventory of 2000 homes in the NEFAR MLS, Northeast Florida Association of Realtors. Now we have 12,000,“ Jon Brooks said, Co-Founder of Momentum Realty. ”So we’ve seen a multiple expansion of the number of homes that we have for sale. Naturally, the more supply that comes on, the most that we’re going to see pricing pressure. So, we’ve seen prices come down in a lot of areas across Northeast Florida."
Brooks says new construction areas, like Nocatee and St. John’s County, are seeing a lot of price pressure.
National slowdown rippling through markets
The Homes.com report notes that new listings nationally rose by 10.1% year over year, the highest number of new listings for October since 2021. That shift has increasingly tilted leverage toward buyers, the company says.
Additionally, other national trackers such as Redfin report home-price growth across U.S. metros plateauing, with prices rising just 0.3% month over month in October and annual growth slowing to its weakest in over a decade.
Affordability and opportunity in Jacksonville
For Jacksonville homebuyers, moderate cooling could translate into increased opportunity. With fewer frenzied bids and more listings hitting the market, buyers who had paused in recent months say they are re-entering the market.
Local mortgage rates, while still elevated, have crept lower recently, improving monthly payment scenarios. Several newer and existing-home neighborhoods on the city’s southside and outskirts are drawing interest from buyers priced out of high-priced urban cores.
Brooks says his real estate firm is seeing homes sit on the market longer and more sellers willing to negotiate.
“This is not a demand crisis; this is simply an affordability crisis. Buyers want to own their own home. The problem is the monthly payment on top of all the other issues that the home buyers have, rising taxes, rising insurance, rising healthcare costs, rising health insurance, all of these factors go into their daily budget. In a lot of cases right now too, it makes more sense to rent than to buy at these peak prices," Brooks said.
Analysts expect the moderating trend to continue through the winter.
“I don’t want to terrify people, but it already is worse than 2008 by far on almost every metric that I track.”
Brooks said he’s closely watching a surge in FHA mortgage delinquencies, which he says have climbed above 10% and are concentrated in newer construction communities. He says many buyers who purchased brand-new homes in 2022 through 2024 with minimal down payments are now underwater, facing higher costs due to lower credit scores and are unable to sell without taking a loss.
He added that some owners can’t even cover their costs by renting, in some cases coming up about $800 short each month, leaving many with few options.
“That’s when people start walking away from their homes,” Brooks said, warning that a wave of such defaults could put broader pressure on the market.